Eurasia

What does the current energy crisis in Moldova reveal about the role of Russian hybrid warfare in its EU accession path? Russian hybrid warfare plays a significant role in hindering the EU accession process, for which the energy crisis reveals tactics such as the weaponization of energy and false narratives. The current energy crisis reveals that Russian hybrid warfare aims to destabilise the country and influence the upcoming parliamentary elections in Russia's favour.

Will the CSTO have a future as a relevant organisation? We see a history of inaction, Russia maintains a leadership role within the organisation and its current priorities are elsewhere; we have seen member states question the organisation. Although the organisation is unlikely to disappear, its fragmentation and decline will create room for regional instability and the emergence of security challenges.

Dutch and German intelligence confirm Russia’s use of chloropicrin in Ukraine. This brief examines international responses, including the OPCW’s role. A strong reaction is vital to prevent escalation and uphold the Chemical Weapons Convention. Beyond confirming use, the OPCW must identify the perpetrator. The future of Cameroon post-Biya also holds national, regional, and global significance.

• How are drones, particularly UAVs, redefining warfare in the Russia-Ukraine conflict?

• Affordable, small-scale drones (like FPVs) are now central to modern combat, offering low-cost, high-impact strategies that outmaneuver traditional defense systems.

• Operation Spiderweb showcased a revolutionary shift in warfare, proving drones are no longer support tools but central weapons capable of strategic, large-scale impact.

What are the driving forces behind the SCO's membership expansion and is the organisation successful in meeting its expected goals? The SCO has gained a more influential position in global affairs through its territorial expansion, but is severely hindered by internal differences. Its policy output is mostly negligible, while its growing voice is highly relevant.

1. Georgia is at a brink of an abyss, with the, the illegitimate Georgian Dream government consolidating their power through rigged elections, pro-Russian laws, and severe suppression of the European identity of Georgians 2.Mass protests erupted after halting EU accession. The government’s violent crackdown led to over 400 arrests and brutality toward protesters and journalists. 3.Georgia’s fate depends on international pressure.

What are the main obstacles to the Armenia-Azerbaijan peace deal, and how do regional and international dynamics impact the process?  The peace deal’s delay stems from Azerbaijan’s demand for constitutional changes in Armenia, border tensions, and the call to dissolve the Minsk Group. Regional factors, such as Türkiye’s conditions and Russia’s shifting focus, hinder swift resolution. Unresolved issues and external factors could postpone the agreement until 2026.

In the upcoming Russian presidential elections, President Putin is expected to portray himself as the unchallenged leader, maintaining his dominance over the Russian state.

Bulgaria's ongoing political instability reflects deep divisions and challenges to coherent national governance.

Russia outproduces the EU in arms, leveraging a wartime economy, while the EU struggles with limited production capacity, posing future conflict risks despite higher equipment quality.

The Temporary Protection Directive (TPD) was activated for the first time in 2022 for Ukrainian refugees. While effective, its temporary nature raises concerns.

EU must increase internal support, as well as forge international alliances if the isolationist against Russia is to succeed.