BBC: NATO mustn’t be naïve on Ukraine deployment
EPIS Geographic Working Groups
South America
Empowering a continent of opportunity and growth
The Working Group South America, exploring security, governance, and economic trends, analyses political stability, organised crime, and foreign influence in South America. It assesses regional defence cooperation, trade relations, and security threats. Monthly briefings offer fact-based analyses and visualisations on South America's evolving geopolitical role in international affairs.
Publications
USAID Freeze and Its Impact on South America
How the 90-day suspension of USAID threatens key development, security, and humanitarian efforts
The suspension of USAID's programs in Colombia, Brazil, Venezuela, and Peru will critically impact peacebuilding, environmental efforts, humanitarian aid, and economic growth. While some countries plan to continue without U.S. support, the freeze risks slowing progress and straining resources in these nations.
Venezuela Elections: What’s Next?
Post-Election Scenarios and the Outlook for Venezuela’s Political Crisis
Despite claims of stealing the 2024 presidential elections, Maduro was inaugurated in January as Venezuela’s president for a third time, effectively extending his time in power to 18 years. As the opposition continues to push back and the international community holds back on recognising Maduro, what’s next for Venezuela?
Beyond the Massacre River
The Pittobert Canal and Hispaniola’s Border Tensions
How has the Pittobert Canal project intensified long-standing border tensions between Haiti and the Dominican Republic? Despite the Canal being crucial for Haiti’s agriculture and sovereignty, the Dominican Republic sees it as a violation of bilateral treaties of 1929 and a national security threat, leading to border closures, military responses, and mass deportations. Rising anti-Haitian sentiment & political decisions have deepened divisions, making resolution difficult.
Latin America
Between U.S. Disengagement and Authoritarian Multilateralism
How can Latin America achieve true strategic autonomy amid U.S. retreat and authoritarian advances? The article argues that multipolarity alone does not guarantee emancipation; dependency risks are merely shifting forms. Conclusion: Latin America must ground its foreign policy in democratic pluralism and epistemic sovereignty to escape old and new subordination alike.
Peru’s Crime Surge: Gangs and State Response
Peru’s security crisis intensifies amid gang violence, state militarization, and legal backlash
How is Peru addressing the rise in organized crime?
The government's militarized response and harsher laws for minors fail to tackle root causes like corruption, drug trafficking, and illegal mining.
Without structural reforms and prevention programs, Peru’s current approach risks worsening insecurity rather than solving it.
Trump's Trade War and Its Mixed Impact on Brazil
How US Tariffs Drive Brazil's Agricultural Boom While Threatening Its Industrial Future
How will Trump's trade offensive reshape Brazil's economic position in the global market? Brazil emerges as the unlikely beneficiary of a trade war it didn't start, with its agricultural sector gaining unprecedented Chinese market share while its industrial base faces crushing U.S. tariffs. Either Brazil must leverage this moment to modernize infrastructure and strengthen manufacturing, or risk becoming trapped as merely a commodity powerhouse while its industrial dreams fade into silence.
Brazil and De-dollarization
Brazil's BRICS Leadership Pushes De-dollarization as Trump Administration Threatens Retaliation
How will Brazil's BRICS presidency in 2025 affect global de-dollarization efforts and U.S. relations? Brazil's leadership of BRICS prioritizes developing alternative payment methods and reducing dollar dependency. The initiative faces significant challenges as Trump threatens 100% tariffs on BRICS nations pursuing de-dollarization, creating tension between Brazil's regional leadership ambitions and its substantial U.S. trade relationship.
Peru's Exports to U.S. & China in APEC
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Main Question: How is the competition between China and the U.S. shaping Peru's role as a trade hub in the Pacific? Argument: The 2024 APEC Summit highlighted China's growing influence in Peru, exemplified by the Chancay Megaport, while U.S.-Peru ties face uncertainty due to President-elect Trump’s tariff plans. Conclusion: Peru’s strategic infrastructure projects position it as a trade hub, with China leading investments and the U.S. aiming to maintain relevance despite challenges.
