Working Group
South America
Empowering a continent of opportunity and growth
The Working Group South America, exploring security, governance, and economic trends, analyses political stability, organised crime, and foreign influence in South America. It assesses regional defence cooperation, trade relations, and security threats. Monthly briefings offer fact-based analyses and visualisations on South America's evolving geopolitical role in international affairs.
Publications
Trump's Trade War and Its Mixed Impact on Brazil
How US Tariffs Drive Brazil's Agricultural Boom While Threatening Its Industrial Future
How will Trump's trade offensive reshape Brazil's economic position in the global market? Brazil emerges as the unlikely beneficiary of a trade war it didn't start, with its agricultural sector gaining unprecedented Chinese market share while its industrial base faces crushing U.S. tariffs. Either Brazil must leverage this moment to modernize infrastructure and strengthen manufacturing, or risk becoming trapped as merely a commodity powerhouse while its industrial dreams fade into silence.
Brazil and De-dollarization
Brazil's BRICS Leadership Pushes De-dollarization as Trump Administration Threatens Retaliation
How will Brazil's BRICS presidency in 2025 affect global de-dollarization efforts and U.S. relations? Brazil's leadership of BRICS prioritizes developing alternative payment methods and reducing dollar dependency. The initiative faces significant challenges as Trump threatens 100% tariffs on BRICS nations pursuing de-dollarization, creating tension between Brazil's regional leadership ambitions and its substantial U.S. trade relationship.
Peru's Exports to U.S. & China in APEC
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Main Question: How is the competition between China and the U.S. shaping Peru's role as a trade hub in the Pacific? Argument: The 2024 APEC Summit highlighted China's growing influence in Peru, exemplified by the Chancay Megaport, while U.S.-Peru ties face uncertainty due to President-elect Trump’s tariff plans. Conclusion: Peru’s strategic infrastructure projects position it as a trade hub, with China leading investments and the U.S. aiming to maintain relevance despite challenges.
